Real historical prices. Fixed assumptions. Transparent math. A structured leverage strategy applied from October 2022 to October 2025.
Period
Oct 2022 → Oct 2025
Starting stack
10 BTC
Risk threshold
20% of portfolio
Annual loan fee
12%
This is a historical simulation using real prices - not a projection or guarantee. The same strategy in a different period could produce different results. Full disclosures
Oct 2022
$19,143
≈ ₪68,242
Oct 2023
$27,392
≈ ₪108,215
Oct 2024
$60,271
≈ ₪227,064
Oct 2025
$114,156
≈ ₪373,627
A disciplined, rules-based approach applied over three annual cycles.
Initial leverage setup
October 2022
With BTC at $19,143, the strategy deployed leverage using 20% of the 10 BTC stack as collateral to acquire additional Bitcoin through a BTC-backed loan.
Stack after setup
12 BTC
BTC added
+2 BTC
Position management - Years 1 & 2
Oct 2022 → Oct 2024
Over the first two years, the strategy managed the existing leverage position through annual cycles - restructuring the loan as Bitcoin appreciated from $19,143 to $60,271. With the risk threshold already met, no additional leverage was added during this period.
Stack maintained
12 BTC
BTC price growth
+215%
Year 3 - additional leverage opportunity
Oct 2024 → Oct 2025
With BTC at $60,271, the existing position required less collateral to maintain. The 20% risk threshold allowed an additional leverage cycle - acquiring more BTC while Bitcoin surged to $114,156 by October 2025.
Stack after additional leverage
12.403 BTC
Additional BTC acquired
+0.403 BTC
Closeout - all positions settled
October 2025
All outstanding debt was repaid using a portion of the leveraged BTC position. The remaining Bitcoin - earned through three years of disciplined leverage - was returned to the stack.
Debt repaid
$81,004
BTC used to repay
0.710 BTC
Final BTC stack
11.694 BTC
Just HODL
Starting BTC
10
Final BTC
10
Starting value
$191,430
Final value
$1,141,559
Growth
+496.3%
HODL + Leverage
Starting BTC
10
Final BTC
11.694
Starting value
$191,430
Final value
$1,334,890
Growth
+597.3%
Additional Bitcoin generated by the strategy
+1.694 BTC
Additional final value
+$193,331
Value uplift vs HODL
+16.9%
Not luck - a consequence of how Bitcoin behaved in this period and how the strategy was designed to benefit from it.
BTC went from ~$19,100 to ~$114,100 over this 3-year window - a ~496% increase. This appreciation far exceeded the 12% annual borrowing cost.
The 20% risk cap prevented over-exposure. Even in volatile periods, the majority of the stack remained unencumbered - providing a margin of safety.
Three years gave the strategy enough runway to absorb early volatility and benefit from the 2024-2025 recovery. Shorter periods may not have been profitable.
No emotional trading decisions. The strategy followed fixed rules each year - evaluate, act, and let Bitcoin do the work. Discipline removed the need for market timing.
This does not mean the strategy will always work. In periods where Bitcoin declines or stagnates, the loan cost erodes the position. The strategy depends on Bitcoin appreciating meaningfully over the chosen time horizon.
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This case study is based on a historical simulation using real Bitcoin prices from October 2022 to October 2025. It is not a forecast or projection of future performance. Historical performance is not indicative of future results.
The results depend heavily on Bitcoin price appreciation and timing. The same strategy applied in a different historical period - particularly one with flat or declining prices - could produce materially different results, including losses.
Leverage introduces additional risk beyond simply holding Bitcoin. Pledged collateral may be lost in adverse market conditions. The 12% annual loan fee and other assumptions are simplified for illustration purposes and may differ from real-world conditions.
Calculations use full internal precision. Displayed values are rounded for readability. Minor discrepancies in displayed totals may result from rounding and are not errors in the underlying logic.
The canonical currency for debt and loan calculations in this case study is USD. ILS values are provided as supporting context using the historical exchange rates embedded in the BTC/ILS prices and do not independently drive the calculations.
Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Users should understand the risks of leverage-based strategies and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. Heartbit Projections Ltd. does not guarantee any outcomes.