Historical Case Study

10 BTC became 11.694 BTC in 3 years

Real historical prices. Fixed assumptions. Transparent math. A structured leverage strategy applied from October 2022 to October 2025.

What this case study shows

Period

Oct 2022 → Oct 2025

Starting stack

10 BTC

Risk threshold

20% of portfolio

Annual loan fee

12%

This is a historical simulation using real prices - not a projection or guarantee. The same strategy in a different period could produce different results. Full disclosures

Historical price inputs

Oct 2022

$19,143

≈ ₪68,242

Oct 2023

$27,392

≈ ₪108,215

Oct 2024

$60,271

≈ ₪227,064

Oct 2025

$114,156

≈ ₪373,627

How the strategy played out

A disciplined, rules-based approach applied over three annual cycles.

1

Initial leverage setup

October 2022

With BTC at $19,143, the strategy deployed leverage using 20% of the 10 BTC stack as collateral to acquire additional Bitcoin through a BTC-backed loan.

Stack after setup

12 BTC

BTC added

+2 BTC

2

Position management - Years 1 & 2

Oct 2022 → Oct 2024

Over the first two years, the strategy managed the existing leverage position through annual cycles - restructuring the loan as Bitcoin appreciated from $19,143 to $60,271. With the risk threshold already met, no additional leverage was added during this period.

Stack maintained

12 BTC

BTC price growth

+215%

3

Year 3 - additional leverage opportunity

Oct 2024 → Oct 2025

With BTC at $60,271, the existing position required less collateral to maintain. The 20% risk threshold allowed an additional leverage cycle - acquiring more BTC while Bitcoin surged to $114,156 by October 2025.

Stack after additional leverage

12.403 BTC

Additional BTC acquired

+0.403 BTC

4

Closeout - all positions settled

October 2025

All outstanding debt was repaid using a portion of the leveraged BTC position. The remaining Bitcoin - earned through three years of disciplined leverage - was returned to the stack.

Debt repaid

$81,004

BTC used to repay

0.710 BTC

Final BTC stack

11.694 BTC

The outcome

Just HODL

Starting BTC

10

Final BTC

10

Starting value

$191,430

Final value

$1,141,559

Growth

+496.3%

HODL + Leverage

Starting BTC

10

Final BTC

11.694

Starting value

$191,430

Final value

$1,334,890

Growth

+597.3%

Additional Bitcoin generated by the strategy

+1.694 BTC

Additional final value

+$193,331

Value uplift vs HODL

+16.9%

Why this result happened

Not luck - a consequence of how Bitcoin behaved in this period and how the strategy was designed to benefit from it.

Bitcoin appreciated significantly

BTC went from ~$19,100 to ~$114,100 over this 3-year window - a ~496% increase. This appreciation far exceeded the 12% annual borrowing cost.

Capped risk threshold

The 20% risk cap prevented over-exposure. Even in volatile periods, the majority of the stack remained unencumbered - providing a margin of safety.

Multi-year time horizon

Three years gave the strategy enough runway to absorb early volatility and benefit from the 2024-2025 recovery. Shorter periods may not have been profitable.

System-driven discipline

No emotional trading decisions. The strategy followed fixed rules each year - evaluate, act, and let Bitcoin do the work. Discipline removed the need for market timing.

This does not mean the strategy will always work. In periods where Bitcoin declines or stagnates, the loan cost erodes the position. The strategy depends on Bitcoin appreciating meaningfully over the chosen time horizon.

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Frequently asked questions

Case study disclosures

This case study is based on a historical simulation using real Bitcoin prices from October 2022 to October 2025. It is not a forecast or projection of future performance. Historical performance is not indicative of future results.

The results depend heavily on Bitcoin price appreciation and timing. The same strategy applied in a different historical period - particularly one with flat or declining prices - could produce materially different results, including losses.

Leverage introduces additional risk beyond simply holding Bitcoin. Pledged collateral may be lost in adverse market conditions. The 12% annual loan fee and other assumptions are simplified for illustration purposes and may differ from real-world conditions.

Calculations use full internal precision. Displayed values are rounded for readability. Minor discrepancies in displayed totals may result from rounding and are not errors in the underlying logic.

The canonical currency for debt and loan calculations in this case study is USD. ILS values are provided as supporting context using the historical exchange rates embedded in the BTC/ILS prices and do not independently drive the calculations.

Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Users should understand the risks of leverage-based strategies and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. Heartbit Projections Ltd. does not guarantee any outcomes.

Case Study: 3-Year Leverage Strategy — Heartbit | Heartbit